Monday, November 10, 2008 - 11/01/08 late loan stats update

Here's the November 1, 2008 update to to my late loan statistics charts.

These charts show statistics for the performance of all loans. Each curve represents the set of loans that were created in one calendar month. The vertical axis is the fraction of those loans that have "gone bad", in other words are 1 month late or worse (up to and including default). The horizontal axis is the observation date. All data comes from's performance web page.

A larger, more readable version of that chart can be found here

11/01/08 small late loan chart

Here's a chart of the same data in which each curve has been slid to the left to a common origin. The horizontal axis is now days since loan origination month.

11/01/08 slid

Explanation of methodology can be found in my prior postings in this blog, and in forum discussions on the old prosper forum, now archived at

PS: Best discussion among lenders can be found at


  1. Hey,

    Thanks for providing this wonderful information.

    This stats will really help people to know more about loans.

  2. Fred. Thanks for the data and analysis!

    Would you mind curve fitting the three month initial default rate for each month, and then plotting that for us? I'll give you a cookie.


  3. Thanks for the data Fred

    Would you mind plotting the three month initial rate for us? That is, curve fit the first three months for each block, and then plot the decline in default rate slop over the life of Prosper.

    I'll give you a cookie please.