Saturday, April 5, 2008 - 4/1/08 late loan stats update

Here's the April update to to my late loan statistics charts.

These charts show statistics for the performance of all loans. Each curve represents the set of loans that were created in one calendar month. The vertical axis is the fraction of those loans that have "gone bad", in other words are 1 month late or worse (up to and including default). The horizontal axis is the observation date. All data comes from's performance web page.

A larger, more readable version of that chart can be found here

4/1/08 small late loan chart

It does continue to look like there's a change in the quality of loans (for the better) between Oct'07 and Nov'07.

On the other hand, we've been fooled before. Earlier it looked like there was a significant change in behavior between Feb'07 and Mar'07. We thought that Mar'07 and later curves had lower slopes. As things evolved, we now see that was an illusion. Feb'07 was a worse than average month, and Mar'07 was a better than average month, so there was a visual "gap" between these two months. As we now look back on Apr'07, May'07, Jun'07 we see that these curves are very similar in slope to prior months. Loans got a little better early in '07, but the effect was slight.

Explanation of methodology can be found in my prior postings in this blog, and in my postings on the old forum archive found at

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