These charts show statistics for the performance of all prosper.com loans. Each curve represents the set of loans that were created in one calendar month. The vertical axis is the fraction of those loans that have "gone bad", in other words are 1 month late or worse (up to and including default or "charge off" as it is now called). The horizontal axis is the observation date. All data comes from Prosper.com's performance web page.
The worst month so far is now February '07. Of the loans originated by Prosper.com in February '07, 45.3% have now gone bad. Yipes!
More detail can be found in my earlier posts.
Here's a chart of the same data in which each curve has been slid to the left to a common origin. The horizontal axis is now days since loan origination month.
Explanation of methodology can be found in my prior postings in this blog, and in forum discussions on the old prosper forum, now archived at www.prosperreport.com
Many of the very early posts in this blog are still on point, and provide background on prosper, from a lender's perspective. If you're new to this, please read old posts before sending questions.
Not much news from prosper.com this month. Lenders are waiting to see Prosper's year-end SEC filing (form 10K) which should issue any day now. This will give us an update on how much cash Prosper has left. Based on the September 30'th quarterly SEC filing, I estimated that Prospser has enough cash to live until April 1, 2010. Some time in the next few days the 10K will issue, and we'll learn how Prosper's management has been managing its cash. If they've been frugal, perhaps they can last a bit longer, or ...
As we discuss the possibility of Prosper's next round of venture capital, it is meaningful to look at the scale of Prosper's business, and how it is growing. A new investor in Prosper's business wants to see growth of course. Prosper's business is not sustainable unless it is able to grow to something like 10x its present size, so growth is absolutely essential. The last few months have been disappointing. Where is the growth? This is sad to see. This company once had enviable buzz. Now their marketing is a horrible failure.
PS: The best discussion among P2P and Prosper.com lenders is found on prospers.org. See you there!